MARCO PROJECT
Market research for a Climate Services Observatory
Go to marco websitea. Seasonal products – projections about deviations in temperature and precipitation in a region for a number of months ahead (as basis for assessing risks of droughts, surplus water, growing seasons, hydro reservoir filling rates, tourist behavior, etc.) .. also indications for hurricane intensity, and monsoon outlooks, under this category, – from these basic meteorological products also impact models can be produced
impacts can be expressed in physical terms (e.g. number of houses exposed to flooding risk, expected yield per ha) or in economic terms (expected damage cost, expected change in visitor level, etc.) often with map visualization – one step further goes e.g. catastrophe modeling aimed to capture certain hazard behavior and related risk pricing
evidence on prediction performance accumulates in a few years, so for verified products the potential benefits of use can be assessed
b. Adaptation oriented products – based on projections of climatological conditions for some to many decades ahead at different spatial and temporal scales (local, regional ,..; annual, monthly, ..) .. on top of these projections model based assessments of impacts and adaptations plans can be used; in contrast to seasonal models adaptation oriented products will often work with scenarios, showing spread in results and in alternative ways to cope with risks
instead of single impacts usually a plethora of initial and follow-up impacts are assessed and (also) expressed in economic terms;
impact propagation models for asset prices are still very uncommon – with the exception of hazard impact evaluations for real estate value